The public research record
Published investment theses are maintained here as a public record. The purpose is not to present a collection of successful calls. It is to provide a record from which the quality and consistency of the research process can be evaluated.
How the record is kept
Dated before the outcome
Every entry originates in a dated document produced before the outcome. Nothing is reconstructed after the fact, and the publication date is part of the record.
Conditions for being wrong
Published theses state the conditions that would change the conclusion. Positioning may change as markets change, and the reasoning for changes is recorded.
Reviewed against the original argument
Completed research is reviewed against what was actually written, including cases where the conclusion was wrong or the analysis was incomplete.
Complete by policy
The record includes every published thesis. Nothing is removed, and there is no selection of favorable entries.
Research completed before public launch
The research process ran privately, and in research prepared for institutional readers, before the first public issue. Entries below are being reviewed to the same standard the published record will use. Where a cell reads Pending, the review or the original document link is not yet published, and no claim is made about it.
| Date | Asset / theme | Original view | Horizon | Status | Outcome | Original report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | US equities, pre-FOMC | Two-sided report into a binary Fed decision, arguing the market was compressed rather than broken | 3 to 6 months | Reviewed | The index closed about 16 percent higher by mid-August 2026 and 23 percent above the late-March low | Republishing as an archive issue |
| Early 2026 | US equities, trend structure | Report flagging deteriorating trend structure ahead of the spring drawdown | Pending | Under review | Pending | Pending |
| Jul 2026 | UiPath (PATH) | Initiation with a stated decision rule and a probability-weighted valuation | 12 months | Open | Position open. The rating moved when the price reached its pre-stated level | Pending |
| Summer 2026 | EOG Resources | Single-name energy research with a reverse-engineered account of what the price implied | Pending | Under review | Pending | Pending |
| 2026 | Visa | Pending | Pending | Under review | Pending | Pending |
| 2026 | Energy and deflation positioning | Research prepared for institutional readers on energy exposure paired with deflation hedges | Pending | Under review | Pending | Pending |
Original documents will be attached with their timestamps as they are prepared for publication, redacted where necessary. Outcomes are stated relative to the original document's date and levels.
From first publication onward
The published record begins with the first regular issue and accrues from there. Each entry will link to the post where the thesis was stated.
The first Corridor publishes September 1 and is reviewed in the September 15 issue. The record builds from there.
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