The published record
Research publishes on Substack and is archived here by series. Everything is free at launch, and the Weekly Read stays free permanently.
The Weekly Read
SundaysA weekly review: current positions and any changes made during the week with the reasoning behind them, what we are watching, and the economic releases, earnings, and events scheduled ahead.
The Corridor
1st & 15th of every monthThe flagship report. An assessment of the macroeconomic and market environment, areas where current pricing appears inconsistent with the available evidence, and how those conclusions affect positioning. Each issue reviews how the prior issue's conclusions have held up.
Research Notes
As completedSingle-name research, model notes, and material changes to standing theses. Each note states its assumptions, what is already reflected in the price, and the conditions that would change the conclusion. Published when the work is complete rather than on a schedule.
Models under study
Working notes on the models behind the research: what was tested, over what period, and what the results were. Results that failed testing remain listed. Test details are on the methodology page.
Oversold Bottom, liquidity supportive
Both market pillars washed out while net liquidity stays supportive. 42 fires from 2008 through 2026, 93 percent positive 13 weeks later, mean forward return +8.6pp against a +3.1pp baseline.
Compressed Top
Liquidity high, trend stretched, tide elevated. 30 fires from 2008 through 2026 with a mean forward 13-week return near zero against a +3.1pp baseline.
Capitulation
Net liquidity falling four straight weeks and already low. Four occurrences from 2008 through 2026, all followed by positive 13-week returns. Four events is too few for statistical claims, so none are made.
ETF-Macro Crossdown
Trend crossing below tide. 99 fires from 2008 through 2026 with forward returns statistically indistinguishable from the baseline. Listed because results that fail testing are part of the record.
Capitalization breadth
Cap-weighted against equal-weighted leadership as a measure of how narrow the market has become, and what narrowness has historically resolved into.
AI breadth
How concentrated the AI-related complex is, and whether that concentration behaves like early-cycle leadership or late-cycle crowding.