Independent research across markets, companies, and the economy.
Hanaska Research publishes independent investment and economic research. Our work spans macroeconomics, public equities, derivatives, market structure, and prediction markets, with an emphasis on developing and testing investment theses across multiple sources of evidence.
Research process
Our research generally begins with a question about a market, company, or economic development.
We examine the relevant data, compare current conditions with historical periods, and test alternative explanations before forming a view. Depending on the question, this may include economic releases, financial statements, asset prices, options markets, positioning, liquidity, or prediction-market probabilities.
The objective is straightforward: produce investment research that is evidence-based, transparent about its assumptions, and clear about what would change the conclusion.
Three series
The Weekly Read
SundaysA weekly review: current positions and any changes made during the week with the reasoning behind them, what we are watching, and the economic releases, earnings, and events scheduled ahead.
The Corridor
1st & 15th of every monthThe flagship report. An assessment of the macroeconomic and market environment, areas where current pricing appears inconsistent with the available evidence, and how those conclusions affect positioning. Each issue reviews how the prior issue's conclusions have held up.
Research Notes
As completedSingle-name research, model notes, and material changes to standing theses. Each note states its assumptions, what is already reflected in the price, and the conditions that would change the conclusion. Published when the work is complete rather than on a schedule.
Research infrastructure
Hanaska maintains its own research database and analytical infrastructure.
The database combines historical and current information from economic, financial, derivatives, and prediction markets. Much of the underlying information is publicly available. Our work is in collecting it consistently, preserving its history, connecting datasets across markets, and building models that can be tested over time.
Models are used to organize evidence and test hypotheses. They are inputs to the research process rather than substitutes for judgment.
From question to review
Question
Define the economic or investment question and the conditions that would support or contradict the initial hypothesis.
Evidence
Examine the relevant market, economic, and company data. Historical comparisons and statistical tests are used where they are appropriate.
Conclusion
Form a view based on the weight of the evidence, including the principal assumptions, risks, and conditions that would change the conclusion.
Review
Revisit published research as new information becomes available and evaluate completed theses against their original reasoning.
A public research record
Published investment theses are maintained as a public research record.
Each entry includes the original publication date, thesis, relevant time horizon, and subsequent outcome. Completed research is reviewed against the original argument, including cases where the conclusion was wrong or the analysis was incomplete.
The purpose is not to present a collection of successful calls. It is to provide a record from which the quality and consistency of the research process can be evaluated.
About Hanaska Research
Hanaska Research is an independent research firm founded by Will Hanafan.
The firm develops research across macroeconomics, public equities, derivatives, market structure, and prediction markets. Hanaska also builds and maintains the data infrastructure and analytical models used in its research.
Regular publication begins September 2026.